Closing-line-tested projections, sharp edges, and Kelly stakes for every FBS game on the slate.
| Bet | EV | Full Kelly % | $1k bank | $5k bank | $10k bank | $25k bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
UGA+0.5 @ −110vs TEX
|
+9.8% | 10.8% | $27 | $135 | $270 | $675 |
|
VAN−3.0 @ −108vs AUB
|
+5.4% | 5.8% | $15 | $73 | $145 | $363 |
|
TEN−11.0 @ −110at UF
|
+5.0% | 5.5% | $14 | $69 | $138 | $344 |
|
BAMA−8.0 @ −115vs LSU
|
+4.3% | 5.0% | $13 | $63 | $125 | $313 |
| Kickoff | Matchup | Market | Model fair | Total | Projection | Win % | Edge · EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:30 ET |
UGA
@
TEX
Georgia #3 at Texas #7
★ FEATURED
SHARP $
|
TEX −2.5
−110
|
UGA +0.5 |
O 51.5
−110
|
27–24 | UGA 58% |
+3.0 pts
+9.8% EV
|
| Sat 12:00 ET |
IND
@
OSU
Indiana at Ohio State #1
FADE TRAP
|
OSU −21.5
−110
|
OSU −19.0 |
O 54.0
−115
|
38–17 | OSU 91% |
−2.5 pts
fade · −6.2% EV
|
| Sat 3:30 ET |
AUB
@
VAN
Auburn at Vanderbilt #9
SHARP $
|
VAN −1.5
−108
|
VAN −3.0 |
O 48.5
−110
|
26–22 | VAN 58% |
+1.5 pts
+5.4% EV
|
| Sat 3:30 ET |
TEN
@
UF
Tennessee #6 at Florida
|
TEN −9.5
−110
|
TEN −11.0 |
O 49.5
−110
|
31–19 | TEN 78% |
+1.5 pts
+5.0% EV
|
| Sat 3:30 ET |
LSU
@
BAMA
LSU #11 at Alabama #4
|
BAMA −6.5
−115
|
BAMA −8.0 |
O 51.5
−110
|
31–23 | BAMA 72% |
+1.5 pts
+4.3% EV
|
| Sat 12:00 ET |
IOW
@
UCLA
Iowa #15 at UCLA
JUICE EATS
|
UCLA −7.5
−110
|
UCLA −8.0 |
O 46.5
−110
|
27–19 | UCLA 64% |
+0.5 pts
−0.7% EV
|
| Sat 10:30 ET |
CAL
@
BSU
Cal at Boise State
JUICE EATS
|
BSU −13.5
−110
|
BSU −14.0 |
O 56.5
−108
|
34–20 | BSU 82% |
+0.5 pts
−0.7% EV
|
| Sat 8:00 ET |
USC
@
BYU
USC at BYU #10
|
BYU −3.0
−105
|
BYU −1.5 |
O 58.0
−110
|
24–22 | BYU 54% |
−1.5 pts
fade · −4.8% EV
|
Every Saturday morning, our model runs 10,000 simulations on every FBS matchup using opponent-adjusted EPA, situational success rates, recent form, transfer-portal flows, and weather context. The output: a fair spread, a fair total, and a win probability for every game on the slate.
The edge gets measured against Pinnacle's closing line, the cleanest public proxy for true market price. Every pick is published, hash-committed before kickoff, and graded after the game. Mean closing-line value, positive-CLV rate, ATS record, and calibration score live on every page.
No picks for sale. No sportsbook affiliates. No "lock of the week" theater. The track record is the product. The audit log proves it.