| Georgia | Category · National rank | Texas |
|---|---|---|
#50.24 |
Off EPA / play | 0.16#22 |
#3−0.21 |
Def EPA / play | −0.11#34 |
#1214.6% |
Explosive play % | 16.1%#7 |
#1446.2% |
3rd down conv | 43.1%#28 |
#547.1% |
Pass rush win % | 42.6%#18 |
#224.1% |
Havoc rate | 19.4%#41 |
#968% |
Red zone TD % | 59%#38 |
Our model centers the distribution at UGA −3, three points more bullish on the Dawgs than the market's close. The positive-edge portion covers 58% of simulated outcomes.
Model fair price next to market price at every alt level. Sub-line buys, alternate sides, and teaser legs all priced.
| Bet | Market | Model fair | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| UGA +7.5 | −190 | −240 | −2.1% |
| UGA +3.5 | −135 | −155 | +3.4% |
| UGA +0.5 MAIN | −110 | −130 | +9.8% |
| UGA −0.5 | +105 | −115 | +11.6% |
| UGA −2.5 ★ BEST EV | +115 | −104 | +11.8% |
| UGA −7.5 | +205 | +150 | +7.5% |
| UGA −14.5 | +500 | +440 | +1.6% |
| Bet | Market | Model fair | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 45.5 | −260 | −270 | −0.3% |
| Over 48.5 | −165 | −168 | −0.1% |
| Over 51.5 MAIN | −110 | −108 | +0.1% |
| Under 54.5 | −155 | −158 | −0.1% |
| Under 57.5 | −240 | −248 | −0.3% |
Market is paying you to take UGA as the slight favorite. Model says they should be favored by 2.5, not the underdog by 2.5. Five-point gap with plus money on top equals a +11.8% bet.
Cross 3 and 7 with UGA and the OSU game total to a +EV two-team teaser. Combined EV +4.7% at standard −110 pricing.
Series: Georgia leads 4-1 all-time. Texas's only modern win was a one-point Sugar Bowl in 2019.